The king of cryptocurrencies, bitcoin (BTC) has extended its consolidation phase at around the $9,200 region, following a critical rejection at $9.5K earlier this week. Both the bulls and the bears seem to have reached a deadlock, with neither party managing a strong move in either direction.
The cryptocurrency is also nearing the lowest levels of volatility which means that major price action is on the horizon. According to crypto analyst and the co-founder of Blockroots, Josh Rager, investors should brace themselves for what is coming in the next few weeks.
The Last Time BTC’s Historical Volatility Was This Low, A 30%-60% Price Move Followed: Josh Rager
At press time, bitcoin is trading at $9,227.58. This is the average price at which it has been trading over the past couple of weeks. This has come as a result of the decreased volatility in the bitcoin market.
In a tweet on July 12, Rager noted that bitcoin’s historical volatility (HV) is now nearing 40. Historically, bitcoin volatility being this low has always been followed by a mammoth price move of between 30% and 60% in the weeks ahead, he further stated attaching a chart to support his analysis.
From the current price levels, an explosive 30% upside move would put BTC at approximately $12,000. Similarly, a 30% downward move would send the coin to $6,500. Either way, he advises bitcoin investors to put their seatbelts on in readiness for the next major move.
Bitcoin historical volatility (HV) nearing 40$BTC volatility this low has historically led to major price action between 30% to 60% movement in the following weeks
— Josh Rager
From current price:
30% move to the upside is $12,200
30% move to the downside is $6,500
Put your seatbelt on pic.twitter.com/ERzWudn547(@Josh_Rager) July 12, 2020
Responding to a Twitter user who asked him whether he thinks BTC is more likely to go to $12K or $6.5K, the analyst postulated:
“Its eventually going to hit $12000+. $7200 is strong area for support. I want to take it level by level. But it might move fast when it does.”
Next Big Move Highly Favors The Bulls
After such a long period of static price action, the question on most investors’ minds right now is whether bitcoin has topped out and ready for a drop or whether a bull run comes next.
It should be noted that some indicators are pointing to an oncoming upward advance for the benchmark crypto. Case in point, the Hash Ribbons have crossed to the bullish side and printed a “buy” signal for the very first time in several months, as noted by fellow bitcoin analyst Moon Capital.
Hash Ribbons have crossed.
— Moon Capital
Buy signal revealed.
$288,000 Bitcoin incoming. pic.twitter.com/QmSrni0kWv(@Moon__Capital) July 12, 2020
Hash Ribbons are deemed a highly reliable indicator by the bulls. Back in 2016, for instance, the formation of this signal was followed by a surge of over 3000% in the months that followed.
Digital asset manager at Capriole, Charles Edwards, has also observed the Hash Ribbon “buy” signal. According to Edwards, if the bitcoin price “closes this daily above $9230, it [“buy” signal] will be confirmed.”
With historical volatility being at lows and with the Hash Ribbon signal almost confirmed, the next major bitcoin move ahead may be in the bull’s favor.
